Survey Finds Crypto Still Holding Hope for This Cycle

Is the Crypto Bull Run Over?

In a recent survey of crypto participants, a majority 81.6% believed that the crypto bull run was not yet over. At least 1 in 2 participants, or 52.3%, estimated that the current bull run was still at its starting or early stages. Another 29.3% estimated the market to be midway through the bull run. In contrast, only 18.4% gauged that the current crypto bull market was in its late stage or had already reached its end.

As was the case with participants’ crypto market sentiment, investors were the most optimistic. 55.5% of investors estimated that the current bull run was at the start or early stage, and 28.8% estimated it to be in the middle. This adds up to a total 84.3% of investors who thought that the bull run was not over yet.

Traders and builders were more cautious, with slightly lower consensus at 78.6% of traders and 74.9% of builders estimating that the bull run was not over.

The full breakdown of investors, traders, builders and sidelined spectators’ views on where crypto was in the current bull market is as follows:

Newcomers and veteran crypto natives shared similar estimates for where the market was in the current cycle. Specifically, estimates for the starting or early stages were made by 52.7% of participants in their first cycle (0 to 3 years of crypto experience), 52.2% of second cyclers (4 to 7 years) and 51.8% of third cyclers or beyond (8 or more years). 

The main difference was that a higher 23.4% share of veterans estimated the market to be in its late or ending stages, compared to 17.6% for both first and second cyclers.

In other words, having different years of crypto experience did not seem to significantly influence how participants viewed the current cycle’s bull run. Instead, there was a similar distribution of optimistic and pessimistic opinions across all three groups:

4 in 5 Agree Crypto Will Go Back up in Current Cycle

In a separate question on common market beliefs, 60.4% of participants identified most closely with the statement “We have not yet peaked for this cycle, the market will go up again.” This was almost three times as many as the 21.3% of participants who identified most strongly with “We are in a supercycle, so the market will continue pumping.” 

In other words, a combined 81.7% of participants believed that the market would see a bullish continuation, either because crypto had yet to peak or had entered a supercycle state. This further reinforces the above consensus view that the current crypto bull run is not over yet and still has upside potential.

The remaining responses include 8.1% of participants who believed most in “We have already peaked for this cycle, market will only go down from here”, 6.1% for “We are near the peak now, so it is time to take profits and exit the market”, and the remaining 4.1% indicated “I've been sidelined so I don't care.”

Notably, a slightly higher 66.7% share of second cyclers believed that the current cycle had yet to peak, compared to 55.2% of first cyclers and 58.9% of third cyclers or beyond. On the other hand, second cyclers were also slightly more skeptical about the crypto supercycle theory with just 18.3% believing in that statement. 

Where Are We in the Crypto Cycle?

From the survey, participants’ estimates of where the crypto market was in its current cycle between June 25 to July 8, 2024, are as follows:

Methodology

The study examined 2,558 crypto participants’ responses in the anonymous CoinGecko Post-Halving Sentiment Survey from June 25 to July 8, 2024. Survey results should be taken as indicative only.

Among the survey participants, 69% considered themselves as crypto investors with mainly long-term holdings, 18% identified as traders with mainly shorter-term holdings, 7% as builders and 6% as sidelined spectators. In terms of how long participants had been in crypto, 46% were in their first cycle (0 to 3 years in crypto), 41% in their second cycle (4 to 7 years) and the remaining participants were veterans with 8 or more years of experience. Geographically, 90% of participants stated that they were based in Europe, Asia, North America and Africa, while the rest were in Oceania or South America. 

This study is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and be careful when putting your money into any crypto or financial asset.

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Curious to find out more about our previous research studies & statistics? Check out this one we did on Bitcoin and Ethereum compared to the Magnificent Seven stocks.