Does Crypto Always Go Up in October?
In 8 of the past 10 years, the global crypto market rallied in October compared to the previous month. The ‘Uptober’ month-on-month (MoM) gains ranged from 7.3% in 2022 at the lowest, to 42.9% in 2021 at the highest. 2014 and 2018 were the only exceptions, when the October total crypto market capitalization declined 12.7% and 8.3% MoM respectively.
From 2014 to 2023, October has recorded an average of 14.0% MoM growth in total crypto market capitalization.
This seems to indicate that there generally is an Uptober effect on a monthly basis, whereby the crypto market rallies on the back of strong Bitcoin price performance.
Not So Uptober Over a Longer Period
The Uptober phenomenon is less common on a year-to-date (YTD) basis however, and occurred for only 6 out of the past 10 years. For those 6 years, October saw strong performance compared to the start of the year, with the crypto market gaining between 58.9% to 879.6% YTD.
On the other hand, the October crypto market shrank between 5.8% to 67.2% YTD for the 4 years that experienced a ‘Downtober’ effect instead.
This suggests that investors might be more justified in trading the Uptober effect on a short-term monthly basis, as compared to the riskier wide range of potential Uptober outcomes for longer-term investments.
Uptober in 2023
The crypto market has also rallied on the Uptober effect in 2023 and is up 18.1% MoM or 58.9% YTD. This marks 5 consecutive years of the Uptober phenomenon on a monthly basis.
Uptober this year drove the total crypto market cap to breach $1.3 trillion for the first time since mid-April, after two quarters of low momentum.
Uptober Does Not Mean Up Only
Uptober was not an ‘up only’ trend for 6 of the 8 years that experienced the effect on a monthly basis. Despite ending with gains, most Uptobers saw losses ranging from 0.1% to 4.1% month-to-date (MTD).
Notably in 2022, the crypto market recorded losses for 21 out of 31 days in October, before bouncing back in the final week to close as Uptober. Similarly, 2023’s Uptober experienced a slight dip from October 10 to 16, when the total crypto market cap fell 0.4% to 2.9% from the previous month.
The only exceptions are 2015 and 2021, which maintained MTD gains for all 31 days and achieved up-only Uptobers.
The Uptober Effect on Global Crypto Markets
October’s total crypto market capitalization month-on-month (MoM) and year-to-date (YTD) percentage change, by comparing October 31 to September 30 and January 1 respectively, from 2014 to 2023:
| Year | Oct Crypto Market, MoM | Oct Crypto Market, YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | -12.7% | -53.1% |
| 2015 | 29.2% | -5.8% |
| 2016 | 9.2% | 88.9% |
| 2017 | 24.3% | 879.6% |
| 2018 | -8.3% | -67.2% |
| 2019 | 15.2% | 95.6% |
| 2020 | 15.3% | 110.2% |
| 2021 | 42.9% | 254.0% |
| 2022 | 7.3% | -54.2% |
| 2023 | 18.1% | 58.9% |
Note that October 30 data was used for 2023, as the month was not over at the time of writing.
Methodology
The study examined daily total crypto market capitalization in October, on a monthly and year-to-date basis from 2014 to 2023, using CoinGecko data.
This study is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and be careful when putting your money into any crypto or financial asset.
If you use these insights, we would appreciate a link credit to this article on CoinGecko. A link credit allows us to keep supplying you with data-led content that you may find useful.
Curious to find out more about our previous research studies & statistics? Check out this one we did on iPhone costs in Bitcoin and Ether over the years.
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