Much is expected of the confluence between Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) approvals and the timing of Bitcoin’s (BTC) fourth halving in April 2024. This anticipation itself will exert heavy pressure on BTC’s price in 2024. Due to expected price volatility, industry veterans have staked their forecast claims across a wide range of price points.
This is reminiscent of the recent Van Eck valuation report on Solana (SOL), which placed the token’s forecast between the impractical $10 - $3,211 range by 2030. However, being the largest crypto by market cap, Bitcoin price expectations are narrower than that.
At a minimum, the expected BTC price in 2024 is $80,000. On average, the price target is just over $87,000. Most of the reasoning behind BTC price 2024 centers around Bitcoin ETF optimism.
To that end, how do the major Bitcoin halving price predictions play out in 2024?
What Is Bitcoin's Price Prediction for 2024?
In aggregating the varied predictions from several pundits and renowned industry experts, we observe a central theme: the average Bitcoin price prediction for 2024 hovers around $87,000. This figure, culled from a Finder survey of 31 FinTech experts, serves as a significant indicator of the market's expectations and sentiment regarding Bitcoin's value post-halving.
| Prediction Issuer | Bitcoin Price Prediction |
| ARK Invest (Cathie Wood), as of January 12, 2024 |
$600,000 - $1,500,000 by 2030 |
| Matrixport (Markus Thielen), as of October 25, 2023 | $125,000 by end of 2024 |
| BitQuant, as of September 15, 2023 | $80,000 - $250,000 by end of 2024 |
| Layer One X (Matiu Rudolph), as of October 25, 2023 | $340,000 by 2025 |
| Bloomberg Intelligence (Mike McGlone), as of July 17, 2023 | $100,000 by 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley (Denny Galindo), as of October 17, 2023 | Not specified, but new bullrun after the fourth halving. |
| Bernstein (Gautam Chhugani), as of October 31, 2023 | $150,000 by 2025 |
Interestingly, 47% of them believe BTC is currently underpriced, while only 10% believe it is overpriced. This consensus average of $87,000 is noteworthy, not only as a numerical prediction but as a reflection of the market's current understanding and anticipation of Bitcoin's future. It encapsulates the optimism of some experts and the caution of others, weighing various factors like the impending halving, macroeconomic influences, and the potential impact of Bitcoin ETFs.
However, it's important to note the diversity in these predictions. For example, ARK Invest's projection extends up to $600,000 as a worst-case scenario by 2030. Meanwhile, other forecasts, like that from Matrixport and BitQuant, suggest a shorter-term target by the end of 2024, ranging between $80,000 and $250,000. These variations highlight the inherent uncertainties and complexities of predicting cryptocurrency prices, influenced by an array of factors from market liquidity to macroeconomic trends.
Thus, while the average prediction of $87,000 provides a valuable snapshot of current expert opinions, it should be interpreted within the context of the broader market dynamics and potential future developments. This figure is not just a number; it is a reflection of the collective pulse of the cryptocurrency market, indicating both the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead as we approach the 2024 halving.
What is Bitcoin Halving?
Bitcoin halving is an inflation-easing mechanism, when the reward for mining is cut in half. It follows the fundamental principle of supply and demand. Likewise, Bitcoin halvings exist to alleviate demand-pull inflation. Baked into Bitcoin’s core code, it is scheduled to occur every 210,000 mined blocks, which takes about four years.
Methodology
The study examines price predictions post-Bitcoin halving in 2024, from various pundits and renowned industry experts. The prediction issuers cited here are: Cathie Wood, Markus Thielen, BitQuant, Matiu Rudolph, Mike McGlone, Denny Galindo, and Gautam Chhugani.
This article was co-authored by Shane Neagle (@_shaneneagle)
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Curious to find out more about our previous research studies & statistics? Check out this one we did on the Biggest Bitcoin ETFs in the World.
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